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IndustriesGovernment and defense

Warning starts in open sources.

Finished intelligence from publicly available information, for watch floors, posts and teams forward.

A port-security mission at Varna watches the western Black Sea from its operations center, on Sentinel, with a patrol vessel offshore on TAK. At 05:35Z on 13 Oct 2026 a real public report relays the Bulgarian government's statement that overnight, drones struck two vessels off the coast, one sunk, rated HIGH. Inside the minute Sentinel publishes it to the common operating picture and, as a Cursor on Target event, to the patrol's TAK devices; Nemesis drafts three courses of action, and by 05:41Z the watch officer has sent the patrol to the search, each step logged. What follows arrives as confirmation: at 07:01Z the Prime Minister's update joins the thread, Bulgaria summons Russia's ambassador and asks NATO and EU partners for help with the investigation and for more air and maritime surveillance; at 09:51Z a report says eleven crew are missing; by 10:00Z seven updates and eight later reports have joined the story, each counted once. Illustrative mission, patrol, ratings and plan.

Developing events

One event, one thread.

The first report leads the thread. Official statements and later reports join it as they land, so the watch follows one story.

Main alertHIGHBGR

Two Vessels Struck by Drones Off Coast of Bulgaria, One Sunk

Two vessels were struck by drones off the coast of Bulgaria in the Black Sea, causing one to sink.

Single-source at time of publication

Thread·7 updates · 8 corroborations · latest 13 Oct 09:50Z
  1. 1Bulgaria Summons Russian Envoy After Black Sea Attack on Cargo Vessel CHELSEA-3
  2. 2Two Cargo Ships Struck by Drones Off Bulgarian Black Sea Coast
  3. 3Bulgaria Summons Russian Ambassador Following Black Sea Drone Strikes on Commercial Vessels
  4. 4EU Condemns Drone Attacks on Commercial Ships Near Bulgarian Coast
  5. 5Drone Strike Sinks Commercial Cargo Ship in Black Sea
  6. 6Commercial Vessels Struck by Drones Off Bulgarian Coast in Black Sea
  7. 7NATO Signals Defense Posture Adjustments Following Black Sea Drone Strikes
8CorroborationsLater reports on the same story
  1. Two Ships Struck by Drones Near Bulgaria
  2. Commercial Ships Struck by Drones Off Bulgarian Black Sea Coast
  3. Two Vessels Struck by Drones Off Bulgarian Coast With One Sunk
  4. Vessel Sinks Following Drone Attack Off Bulgarian Black Sea Coast
  5. EU Condemns Drone Attacks on Commercial Vessels Off Bulgarian Coast
  6. Two Ships Near Bulgaria Struck by Drones, One Sunk
  7. Two Merchant Ships Struck by Drones in Bulgarian Black Sea EEZ
  8. Drone Strikes Hit Two Ships Off Bulgarian Coast Leaving Eleven Missing
Headlines and times from the live thread, as of 13 Oct 2026 10:00Z. Rated HIGH throughout.

Teams forward

Into TAK as Cursor on Target.

Geolocated reports reach TAK as Cursor on Target events. Sentinel on iOS and Android keeps delivering as the link degrades.

GET /tak/cot-feed/e402161d…application/xml
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<event version="2.0" uid="sentinel-e402161d-685a-46f2-bd87-81d30841fa3c" type="a-u-S"
       time="2026-10-13T05:35:26.881090Z" start="2026-10-13T05:35:26.881090Z"
       stale="2026-10-13T06:35:26.881090Z" how="m-g">
  <point lat="43.15" lon="28.5" hae="0" ce="9999999" le="9999999"/>
  <detail>
    <contact callsign="SENTINEL-IMMEDIATE"/>
    <remarks>Two Vessels Struck by Drones Off Coast of Bulgaria, One Sunk - Two vessels were struck by drones off the coast of Bulgaria in the Black Sea, causing one to sink.</remarks>
    <_sentinel_ severity="HIGH" category="MARITIME_AVIATION"
                id="e402161d-685a-46f2-bd87-81d30841fa3c" countries="BGR"/>
  </detail>
</event>

The report of 13 Oct 2026, 05:35Z, as Sentinel's TAK endpoint serializes it.

Courses of action

From warning to courses of action.

When a report crosses a mission's tripwire, Nemesis drafts courses of action from the standing plan.

Nemesis activations1 active
Two Vessels Struck by Drones Off Coast of Bulgaria, One Sunk
Western Black Sea · activated 05:35Z · 3 COAs · Maritime watch
ELEVATED risk
PlanMaritime watch, western Black Sea
TripwireAttack on commercial shipping inside the watch area, HIGH and above
TriggerBGR · 13 Oct 2026 · 05:35Z · HIGH
Nemesis · Courses of action

A HIGH report inside the western Black Sea watch area crossed the maritime tripwire. Three courses of action follow, drawn from the plan.

Plan details

Send the plan's maritime advisory to flagged vessels and their agents in the corridor. Attach the report and its location. Ask for position reports every four hours.

Risk assessment

Low. An advisory changes no transit plans and uses a channel already in the plan.

Likelihood of success

High. The advisory list and the channel are kept current in the plan.

Illustrative plan, tripwire and courses of action for a maritime watch, a different mission from the story above. The trigger is the real report of 13 Oct 2026, 05:35Z.

Case 05Mining and commodities

Airstrikes on Sudan's gold miners.

What we did

  • Sent a HIGH warning 17 s after collection, marked single-source.
  • Held the two repeats.

Our HIGH warning went out the night the first report appeared. International news agencies carried it the next afternoon.

River Nile State, Sudan · 10 Oct 2026

Read the case file
warning sent
1
reports collected
3
held as repeats
2
languages
2

Measured on production records, as of 13 Oct 2026. Outlets are not named.

Case 04Cyber

Hackers claim FBI staff data.

What we did

  • Sent the claim as one warning, worded as a claim.
  • Held ten repeats.
  • Each later fact from other sources got its own warning.

Each new fact came as its own warning: the claim as a claim, then three from other sources. Ten repeats held.

Washington, DC · 22 to 24 Sep 2026

Read the case file
warnings sent
4
reports collected
14
held as repeats
10
languages
6

Measured on production records, as of 5 Oct 2026. Outlets are not named.

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